In an New York Times article of March 28th, the words of Steward Alsop, who predicted that the last mainframe would be unplugged in 1996 were put in context.
The mainframe was use as one example how “old” technology proved to be a strong survivor together with Radio, railways and the most modern one, print media. All these “old” technologies were supposed to be replaced by new ones like television, cars & trucks and the Web respectively.
One of the conclusions is that, to survive, these “old” technologies all have some sort of enduring advantage that is not replaced by its “successor”. And for the mainframe, this typically was the rock-solid stability and security to run vital transactions, while at the same time it allowed companies to integrate “new technology” like the Web & SOA transactions.
The most important conclusion was that the business decisions matter most. People tend to overestimate the importance of technological innovation and underestimate the role of business judgment. “The rise and fall of technologies is mainly about business and not technological determinism”.
